EU and India share history and historical links and today they also
face similar sets of challenges. The leaderships in both regions need
to take some hard decisions to set their house in order, writes
Frank-Jürgen Richter
Curiously India and the EU have suffered a similar history over the
last 2000 years. Their kingdoms have been ransacked by armies of
occupation, even the Romans captured the north India regions so
supporting easier trading from distant UK through to India; religious
strife was common place in both regions; and while around the coasts
in the many ports local people met and mingled with a myriad of others
the people in land hardly saw a foreign person during their lives. The
more and more insular village people travelled little, with only a few
herding their livestock to a local market bringing back news of the
'wide world'. It is only in the recent past that the nations of Europe
and the many regions of India have achieved peace.
Peace is important to maintain trade, prosperity and growth. As noted
above, the Roman armies conquered 'the world' and, having conquered,
they imposed a common set of rules and laws sub duing local customs
and often mini-wars. The main effect of this control was the opening
up of trade. Stability and consistency of rules and knowledge of
trading partners and their needs are the bedrock of trade. Modern
trade is dependent on standards applied through common software
packages run by ports, shippers, and by the freight forwarders to
ensure door-to-door tracing and tracking both for the physical product
and for the payment of dues and taxes on the products with all
transcripts being digitised and with the goods' protection guaranteed
by insurance clauses. Trade increases in line with national wealth,
and there is a 'chicken and egg' situation for traders as ports and
hinterland services have to be developed to allow largerships to berth
and beloaded in a timely fashion. The services have to be considered,
planned and implemented as part of a 'trade agreement' which take some
time to beagreed.
Not with standing any private trade arrangements between parties in
Europe and India their governments have held formal meetings to forge
'relations' from in the mid-1960s. Then in 1994 there was a
Cooperation Agreement; in 2004 was the 'Strategic Partners' plan,
which was upgraded by the 'Acti on Plan' of 2008. Now there is the
EU's Country Strategic Paper for India 2007 - 2013 having a focus on
mutual aid on education, health, energy, environment and trade
assistance as well as on joint
anti-terrorism planning. But this succession of accords does not imply
good progress. On the contrary, formal agreements have been slow to
beagreed as India seemed quite reluctant to acknowledge the 'EU'
preferring instead to forge bi-lateral deals with individual nations
rather than a wide FTA (free trade agreement) as desired generally by
the World Trade Organisation, and as hoped for in the Doha round of
meetings, but which stalled. During the early months of 2012 the EU
and India have failed to agree on their duty and tax levels - for
instance, the Indian tariff on European car imports is about 10 times
greater than the reverse EU barrier, and the EU views Indian software
houses as potentially overwhelming the software workers of the EU.
Of course it was recognised that this agreement would create the
world's largest FTA with a population over 1.8 billion, more than a
quarter of the world's people. Even so, India has kept the EU at
arm'slength over some five years of negotiation while trade mounts. In
2010 the EU goods exports to India were EUR34.7 billion, in reverse
was EUR33.2 billion; services trade EU to India were EUR9.8 billion,
in reverse EUR8.1 billion; and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) from EU
to India was EUR3.0 billion, and in reverse EUR0.6 billion. There are
many political agenda behind the accords. In Europe we know that its
internal accord rests on the people's agreement within each of the 27
nations, and that many do not like the impression of rules from
Brussels over their own national parliaments. The situation, in
practice, maybe similar in India, as the enforcement of Indian laws
set by the parliament in Delhi is not enjoyed by leaders in the
regions, nor by the mass of people in these regions, but there are far
more people in India swaying local as well as national opinion.
Progress in Europe in comparison to India seems to more effective. Let
us consider transport again (as itis the carrier of trade, growth, and
thus wealth). The European road and rail system once was mess -
national systems had grown incrementally over many years with
individual nations deciding not to provide interlinks to
the next country to protect their own nation in times of war. That
idea did not work in practice. The EU gradually formed the opinion
that if it wished to proceed to the 'EU Single Market' (for the free
exchange of goods, services and people) it needed to have an
integrated road and rail system across the whole Union. It decided by
the end of the 1980s on the construction of the multi-modal
Trans-European Network for Transport (TEN-T). This plan also
encompassed the ports of Europe as they was seen as multi-modal points
of exchange to both short-sea shipping (so reducing load on the in
land freight networks) and to oceanic shipping (increasing external
trade). While TEN-T was beginning in Europe the same integration
concept was being pressed by the EU in Central Asia, and with the help
of the Asian Development Bank the concept was extended into eastern
Asia. The TEN-T development was materially aided by EU structural fund
supporting, in fact, transport, energy and telecoms and by the
European Investment Bank (EIB). There was an integration of national
as well as pan-Europe progress which allowed the Schengen Accord for
the free passage of goods and people across national borders without
hindrance and the inconvenience of halting for passport or other paper
checks. One TEN-T report say the EU 27 comprises 5.0 million km of
paved roads which is slightly more than the of Indian's 4.42 million
km total (which only comprises about 250,000 km of highways and paved
roads). The Indian government was a slow to redevelop its roads (and
railways), onlypressing ahead in the late 1990's. In fact the Indian
system still has too many unpaved roads supporting too much heavy
traffic - thus the density of paved roads in India, while increasing,
may be some 10 - 15 times lower than in the EU. The flow of vehicles
on all roads is hampered by overcrowding, by too large a mix of users
(from bullock carts to huge trucks) with most engaged in poor road
manners like driving contra to the correct flow on dual carriageways
that causes many avoidable deaths of man and beast.
Surely this hampers its economy? A 2009 report by Goldman Sachs
suggests that India will need to invest US$1.7 trillion on its
infrastructure projects by 2020 to meet its economic needs. This is a
lot of cash in a country that has just suffered a downgrade by
Standard & Poor's to BBB- (negative outlook) that also implies a 1 in
3 chance of a further downgrade. However other rating agencies
maintain their BBB- (stable) rating - but this is only one grade above
junk bond rating (ie not advisable as an investment). While Europe
carries grave concerns about its financial cohesion it still maintains
a high rating overall. However S&P look gravely upon Europe saying it
carries too many stresses and it is not moving fast enough to remove
these difficulties - legislating for austerity is not a route to
growth - but the banks and governments face many and conflicting
demands. For instance, banks need to increase their lending to
stimulate growth, but they are told also to increase their margin of
cover by new Banking rules: it is a global problem affecting India as
well. Recent agitation in several countries does not reduce the
stresses according to the ratings agencies, though they may make the
people happier in the short term by their voting away of reformist
policies. But the people conflate their woes with the effects of
globalization as well as the need for freer movement of goods,
services and people - they fight against 'everything' while also
wishing to benefit from the social welfare that has reached quite high
levels over the past decades. One can't enjoy 'free' gifts without
working and returning taxes to the governments.
In India, over the first 50 years of its independence little drastic
has occurred except perhaps for its explosion of population due to
reducing mortality without a decrease in the birth rate. It chose
early to be an independent nation so did not benefit from much inwards
investment after the last world war as the big economic blocs sought
economic colonialism. Therefore India funded its own growth from
savings rejecting inwards investors. It invested well, but forgot to
police its fund flows. As a result too little cash flows to the
project targets - as little as 17 percent of funds according to some
government spokespersons. And while local investors deplore its high
and steady corruption there is a lack of government will to pursue
anti-graft laws. Therefore inwards investment has been restricted by
policy inactions-the desire to be independent and letting corruption
run rife to the highest levels of government: its governance needs to
become clear and transparent. If it could introduce these social
reforms it would free cash and by enabling structural support for
investors would increase growth through breaking its government
paralysis. As it is, many point disparagingly to recent policy
setbacks, such as a failed plan to open the retail market to foreign
investment, as well reneging on proposed changes to India's tax laws
and to cleaning-up corruption scandals. In this globalized world we
must be pluralistic and open to competition, but Indian negotiators
fail to address these issues - as noted by the EU in its pursuit of
wide accords and FTAs with India.
In Europe one cannot fail to notice the very different stances of
member states - there is a strong north/south divide that affects
social, public and management life and there is an east/west divide as
each adjusts their historical norms to the needs of the whole: always
the management of the EU looms over us. Yet the EU must also learn -
it is late in coming to a firm stance on foreign policy for instance
that India knew from its early days was to be one, not of isolation,
but of independence. India has the benefit of being a single
democratic country - yet it often behaves as though its regional
governors were in fact independent presidents not beholden to the
national government, and the latter seem unwilling at times to exert
due control. Soon the EU, India and other nations must relinquish
their soft ideals of "see the world in all its magnificent variation"
and instead accept the hard facts of finance, that "... money does not
grow on trees". Each of us must nurture our specialties,
growing our 'trees and seeds' for our mutual benefits - that means
with good governance, transparency and ecologically correct.
Dr Frank-Jürgen Richter is founder and chairman of Horasis, a global
business community. Horasis hosts the annual Global India Business
Meeting, the 2012 edition will he held in Antwerp, Belgium, 24-25
June.
Horasis is a global visions community committed to enact visions for a sustainable future. (http://www.horasis.org)
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